Horse racing is the ultimate “I did not see that coming” sport. The Kentucky Derby often is just that, only on steroids sometimes. Often, what appears on paper is what we get. But often, we overthink what we see in the racing form and get cute. It’s called paralysis by analysis. It happens to the best handicappers and is the downfall of many poor ones. Chaos can be a part of the recipe too. Just ask track announcer Tom Durkin, who still doesn’t believe what he saw in 2009 when 50-1 shot Mine That Bird flew up the rail in the slop to win the Roses. This year, it sure looks and feels like a two-horse race between Florida Derby winner Fierceness and Bluegrass winner Sierra Leone. In Derby 150, this is where you’ll have to take a stand. Do I trust what I see on paper, or will I bet on chaos and look at other options?
Trusting your instincts is a valid approach, but it’s crucial to back your intuition with solid metrics when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. The gap between the top two contenders is as vast as the Grand Canyon. They are the fastest horses, trained by top professionals and ridden by experienced jockeys familiar with Churchill Downs. In boxing, they refer to this as the ‘tale of the tape.’ While we won’t consider physical attributes like reach and height, we can use other reliable metrics to compare Fierceness and Sierra Leone and identify a potential edge.
Let’s take a look at the connections first. Fierceness is owned by Mike Repole, a wild and crazy New Yorker looking for his first Derby victory. Repole has teamed with trainer Todd Pletcher to win many other important races, but the Derby has eluded him. Sierra Leone has multiple owners, with Michael Tabor being the only one to taste Derby champagne with Thunder Gulch in 1995. One of the owners is a native Louisvillian, Brook T. Smith. If Repole were to win the Derby, our hometown may never be the same. The tale of the tape says advantage — PUSH.
The trainers are as good as the sport can offer. Sierra Leone trainer Chad Brown owns North American turf racing but has never won the Derby. His success on dirt is catching up. Fierceness trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Derby twice, but his winning percentage could be better. The tale of the tape says advantage — Sierra Leone.
The jockeys are two of the best in the country. Three-time Derby winner John Velazquez will pilot Fierceness. Sierra Leone’s jockey will be Tyler Gaffalione, who has won many Churchill Downs riding titles and is at his home track. Gaffalione has yet to win the Derby, but this could be his best chance. The tale of the tape says advantage — Fierceness.
Beyer speed figures indicate a significant advantage goes to Fierceness. His speed figure in the Florida Derby (110) is by far the fastest for any horse in his generation. The top Beyer for Sierra Leone is the (98) he earned in his Bluegrass Stakes win. The tale of the tape says advantage — Fierceness.
When putting the Derby puzzle together, consistency always plays a major part in finding an edge. If there’s a chink in the Fierceness armor, it’s his inability to deal with adversity during a race. In his brilliant five-race career, he’s never been able to put two back-to-back winning performances together. Sierra Leone, but for a nose job in the Remsen as a two-year-old, would be undefeated heading into the Derby. He brings his out-of-the-clouds running style to every race. The tale of the tape says a significant advantage to — Sierra Leone.
We will know the post positions later this month, but just about any gate will work for Sierra Leone, as he’ll be far back in the pack early. Fierceness will need a decent gate draw to allow him to use his tactical speed early. He seems to sulk when he cannot be among the early vanguard, which has attributed to a few of his clunkers. Sierra Leone has shown the type of maturity it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. The tale of the tape says advantage — Sierra Leone.
The racing surface doesn’t favor either horse. Fierceness broke his maiden by 11 on an off-track, and Sierra Leone won the Risen Star in the slop. The tale of the tape says advantage — PUSH.
Distance is always a factor in the Derby, as none of the three-year-old’s have yet to travel the 1 1/4-mile distance. However, both pedigrees suggest that it will not be a determining factor. The old saying is very true to the Derby. It’s not how fast you go; it’s how you go fast. The tale of the tape says advantage — PUSH.
There will be 18 other horses that will have a say in who wears the roses. They are all to be respected, but they will be stepping into the ring with two heavyweights. The tale of the tape gives a razor-thin margin of victory to Sierra Leone. Let’s see how they both do in their pre-Derby sparring matches to see if either shows a glass jaw.